Writing in the Financial Times(subscription may be necessary), Neal Hudson, a housing market analyst and founder of the consultancy BuiltPlace shows the complexities and inconsistencies in tracking housebuilding data in England, which has significant implications for government policy, investment decisions, and housing market analysis. Here are the key takeaways:

1. Data Discrepancies

  • Census Recounts: Anomalies like the inclusion of static holiday caravans in housing data (e.g., East Lindsey) highlight inaccuracies in how homes are tallied.
  • Building Control vs. NAD Data: The most commonly used building control data undercounts completions significantly compared to the more comprehensive Net Additional Dwellings (NAD) data.
    • Example: For 2023-24, NAD recorded 199,000 completions, while building control data showed only 158,000.

2. Regional Variances

  • Areas like London are particularly affected by undercounting due to diverse housebuilders and alternative warranty providers.
    • In 2023-24, building control data cited 16,000 completions in London, while NAD showed 28,000, and Greater London Authority (GLA) data recorded nearly 32,000.

3. Broader Implications

  • Policy Formulation: Inaccurate data complicates efforts to meet housing targets and craft effective policies.
  • Investor Impact: The lack of reliable data may mislead institutional investors, such as pension funds, investing in residential property markets like build-to-rent schemes.
  • Historical Underreporting: Experts, like the late Dr Alan Holmans, have questioned whether housing completions from the 1990s and earlier were fully captured.

4. International Perspective

  • Ireland’s Missteps: Ireland previously overestimated housing delivery by counting electricity connections, which included non-residential structures like cowsheds.

5. Recommendations

To improve accuracy:

  • Standardise Reporting: Ensure uniform data collection across all builders, including small developers and non-traditional builders.
  • Timely Updates: Accelerate the publication of NAD data and reduce its eight-month delay.
  • Transparency: Revise historical data regularly to correct for missed completions.

Closing Thought

While building static holiday caravans might provide a tongue-in-cheek solution to meeting housebuilding targets, resolving systemic issues in data collection and analysis is essential for achieving meaningful progress in addressing housing needs.